Please Enjoy this great piece by fellow IEC, Joe Slater, on the implications of the Transfer portal as we hit the Winter Football portal window.
Introduction
The NCAA transfer portal has revolutionized college athletics, bringing both opportunities and challenges. What started as a tool to provide student-athletes with more freedom and flexibility has evolved into a powerful, yet complex, aspect of the collegiate sports landscape. A recent study by AD Advisors, a group of seasoned sports industry professionals, dives deep into the data and realities of the transfer portal's impact on college football.
Read the study here: https://www.adadvisors.agency/_files/ugd/71e62a_7e13867f4ed44a82ae0a8988310e40d4.pdf
Key Findings from the Study
AD Advisors' comprehensive study examined over 800 FBS football players who entered the transfer portal between 2020 and 2023. The research focused on Power 5 and Group of 5 programs and included insights from coaches, administrators, and athletes. Here are the standout findings:
1. Majority Transfer Down
- 60% of student-athletes transferred to a lower competition level.This statistic reflects a core reality of the transfer portal: while it offers opportunities for athletes to find new teams, it often results in them stepping down in competitive prestige. For Power 5 athletes, this typically means transferring to Group of 5 schools, while for Group of 5 athletes, the next step is often FCS or even Division II programs. These moves are sometimes voluntary, driven by the pursuit of more playing time or a better fit. However, they also highlight how the portal tests an athlete's value in the competitive market, often revealing a gap between their aspirations and actual demand.
- 66% of successful transfers moved down.The increase in this figure for "successful" transfers emphasizes that moving to a lower level is often the most viable path for athletes seeking immediate opportunities. The dynamic underscores a sobering truth: the portal rarely propels athletes to higher levels of competition, challenging the narrative that it is a direct path to upward mobility.
2. Uncertainty and Multiple Transfers
- 30% of athletes transferred multiple times, playing for three or more teams.The phenomenon of "school-hopping" reflects the portal's instability for many athletes. A transfer may initially seem like the solution to challenges such as limited playing time, poor fit, or dissatisfaction with coaching. However, repeated transfers often indicate unresolved issues or unmet expectations, leaving athletes in a cycle of instability.Example: One athlete in the study transferred four times, moving from McNeese to Cisco College (non-NCAA), then to Western Kentucky, and ultimately to Texas State. While this flexibility might benefit certain players, it also shows how frequent moves disrupt continuity and long-term development.
- Repeat transfers correlated with further competition declines.The data revealed that each successive transfer increased the likelihood of moving further down the ladder, from Power 5 to Group of 5, and often to FCS or lower. This pattern suggests that repeat transfers are often reactive rather than strategic, as athletes may struggle to secure a consistent role or favorable environment.
3. Promises vs. Reality
- False promises are common.Many athletes entering the portal are drawn by assurances of better financial incentives, more playing time, or a supportive team culture. However, interviews revealed that these promises often go unfulfilled. Examples include:
A UNLV quarterback who was reportedly promised a six-figure NIL deal but never received it, leading him to redshirt after three games and re-enter the portal.
Verbal offers that sound enticing but lack written agreements, leaving athletes vulnerable to unmet expectations.
- Athletes' advice: "Go where you are needed, not wanted."Experienced players highlighted the importance of prioritizing fit over promises. One athlete emphasized the need for research and clarity, urging peers to demand written agreements and evaluate team culture, coaching, and developmental opportunities before committing.
4. Unsuccessful Outcomes
- 10% of athletes found no new team.The portal’s risks are evident in the significant percentage of athletes who remain unclaimed. These athletes either withdraw from the portal, remain inactive, or are forced to end their collegiate careers prematurely. This underscores the need for careful planning before entering the portal, as its consequences can be irreversible.
- Athletes lose developmental opportunities.For those left without a team, the lack of structured training, competition, and coaching significantly impacts their growth and future prospects. In some cases, athletes enter the portal without realistic expectations or a clear strategy, leaving them vulnerable to these outcomes.
